from BOLEHLAND to SWEARLAND!

No need for me to swear on the Quran, says Anwar

GEORGE TOWN - Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (pic) says he will not swear on the Quran that former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had asked for funds from the World Bank in 1999.

He claimed that there was no need for him to do so because the World Bank had records to confirm the approval of an application by the Malaysian Government that year.

"I have also issued a statement on the report by the World Bank.

"These are facts and the World Bank approved the application by Malaysia. What is there to swear on?" he asked.

Dr Mahathir challenged Anwar on Satur-day to swear on the Quran in a mosque that he had written a letter to the World Bankasking for funds.

The former prime minister said he was willing to swear in a mosque that he did not write such a letter.

Anwar said the World Bank's annual report showed the kind of loans given to Malaysia since 1999.

"How am I supposed to find the letter sent by the Government to the World Bank?" he said during a break at the Penang Muslim Congregation Convention at Evergreen Laurel Hotel here yesterday.

Asked to comment on reports of PKR members leaving the party, Anwar said it was "normal" before an election.

"But at polling time, there will be votes," he quipped.

Full report : AsiaOne 19Dec 2011

Ku Li is opposition’s ‘meal’ ticket

If a 'hung' Parliament does befall Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat's Anwar Ibrahim will be kept waiting at the royal gates.

Last week I wrote that the 13th general election will deliver a clear winner simply because that’s what Malaysians “would prefer”. But let’s now assume the next GE delivers a hung Parliament.

How can this happen? More importantly, why have the opposition extended an invitation to Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (Ku Li)? And in what capacity do they see him?

I believe the answer lies in the hard realities of Malaysian politics.

Let’s look at a likely scenario if there’s a hung Parliament. A “hung” Parliament can take place when not one single party has the majority in Parliament.

Any one party can have the largest number of seats which, if it is less than 112, can never go on to form the government.

Let’s say Umno garners the most seats – at least 70 from its current 79. It then becomes the party with the largest number of seats.

Sarawak not enough

What happens when the results of the elections come out?

The first person or persons to see the Yang di-Pertuan Agong will be the chief secretary and possibly the Attorney-General (AG) because of the constitutional implications.

He will look around and inform the King that the party which has the largest number of seats is Umno.

The King then summons Umno to inquire whether it can form the government.

Umno will look around and it will see its traditional partners decimated.

It will then cast its eye on Sarawak and sees possibly Taib Mahmud’s Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) which probably retains 12 seats.

But what if 16 seats are won by the opposition there? PBB has only three more seats friendly to offer. Then Taib will say, “boss I can only offer 15 seats”.

The other 16 have gone to DAP and PKR and to those who don’t want BN anymore. I can’t “gawai” and “ngajat” anymore. It makes me dizzy. Umno plus the Sarawak party now has 85 seats.

No options

If we are kind enough, let’s say MCA managed to wriggle through with three seats – Umno-Barisan Nasional now has 88. MIC delivers one seat. Now it has 89.

Out of the 25 seats in Sabah, the state Barisan Nasional coalition (after excluding Umno) takes another eight.

Now Umno and BN have 97 seats. Still not enough ma…

Mana mahu cari lagi?

The Umno president then goes on air and proclaims that we can’t form a federal government if we can’t show we are multiracial.

Since my macai party MCA has not enough seats, in order to show we are inclusive, 1Malaysia, multiracial and all that, I now call upon my old friend uncle Kit (Lim Kit Siang) to join us.

DAP is invited to join the new coalition party. Uncle Kit will say: “Mo-wa thank you.”

The story we wish we can expand is thus cut short. Uncle Kit and Uncle Karpal (Singh) will say: “Over my dead body. Nahi!”

So Umno and BN have run out of options and so they will declare that BN can’t form a government.

Getting an audience

Meanwhile, Anwar Ibrahim is jumping up and down at the palace gates screaming: “I have the number! I have the number! I have a signed declaration from the MPs they want us (Pakatan Rakyat) to form a government!”

But the paper with the signed names is worthless. You have to test it actually in Parliament.

Parliament hasn’t yet sat so there’s no way of testing Anwar’s claim. So Anwar couldn’t pass the palace gates.

He requests for an audience to meet the King along with all the signatories of his paper to show the King he has the number.

They all come in AirAsia buses provided by chief executive officer Tony Fernandes who’s eager to high-five with the new rulers.

Anwar can only succeed if he gets an audience with the King. This has always been the way, the precedence.

Abdul Zamry Kadir brings all the assemblymen who supported him before (Perak Sultan) Raja Azlan Shah and submitted: “Sire, here is the proof that I have more support than Nizar (Jamaluddin – elected Menteri Besar of Perak).”

Doing a Zambry

Until today, we are still debating whether the meeting with Raja Azlan in his palace constituted a Dewan siting.

But now, BN people cannot say it doesn’t because that’s how Zambry got to become MB.

Anwar is just doing a Zambry when he asks to meet up with the King.

Anwar, who over the years has created animosity with the AG, the police, and the chief secretary is still not given permission to pass the gates to the new palace.

That’s when Tengku Razaleigh comes into the picture. But that my friends will be in another instalment.

The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman and a FMT columnist  / Dec 3, 2011.

Akta Perhimpunan Aman usaha BN sekat kebebasan!

Nov 23, 2011 | Rang undang-undang Perhimpunan Aman 2011 yang dibentangkan di Dewan Rakyat, semalam sama sekali bersifat mencegah atau melarang sama sekali sebarang perhimpunan di negara ini, kata bagi AJK PAS Pusat, Mohamed Hanipa Maidin.

Menurut Mohamed Hanipa (kiri) yang juga seorang peguam, tindakan menamakan rang undang-undang itu sebagai Akta Perhimpunan Aman sedangkan hakikatnya melarang perhimpunan adalah jelas satu lagi siri penipuan kerajaan BN Umno dan Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Razak ke atas rakyat.

Beliau juga dipetik oleh Harakahdaily sebagai berkata, mana-mana orang yang waras pemikirannya akan dengan mudah memahami sekatan terbaru yang cuba dikuatkuasakan ke atas rakyat itu.

“Sebagai peguam dan AJK PAS Pusat, saya akan mengusulkan kepada pihak PAS untuk mencabar rang undang-undang ini di mahkamah supaya ia tidak akan dimuktamadkan sebagai akta.

“Pada hari ini kami peguam PAS akan melancarkan secara rasmi ‘perang’ ke atas akta zalim ini melalui saluran undang-undang yang sedia ada,” katanya.

Menyusahkan

Semalam, ketika pembentangan rang undang-undang itu, Menteri Di Jabatan Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Mohd Nazri Abdul Aziz berkata antara kandungan penting undang-undang yang dicadangkan itu, termasuk:

• Notis awal 30 hari untuk berhimpun, kecuali mereka yang berada di kawasan yang dtetapkan oleh menteri dalam negeri.

• Selepas memaklumkan, perhimpunan boleh diteruskan, kecuali terdapat bantahan daripada polis.

• Tiada protes jalanan dibenarkan.

• Tiada protes dalam 50 meter daripada kawasan yang dilarang, termasuk hospital, sekolah dan rumah ibadat.

Menurut Mohamed Hanipa, Akta Perhimpunan Aman sepatutnya memudahkan perhimpunan aman bukan menyusahkannya.

Katanya, jika Akta Polis 1967 khususnya seksyen 27 dan 27A sudah bersifat ‘draconian dan zalim, akta yang ingin digubal ini beribu-ribu kali lebih zalim daripada Akta Polis yang ingin digantikan.

“Hanya kerajaan zalim seperti Umno sahaja berupaya terfikir untuk menggubal akta sezalim itu.

“Rang undang-undang ini juga secara jelas unconstitutional kerana ia bertentangan dengan Perkara 10 Perlembagaan Persekutuan,” katanya.

Percepatkan ajal

Mohamed Hanipa juga dipetik Harakahdaily sebagai berkata, meskipun Perkara 10 membenarkan sebarang akta digubal oleh Parlimen untuk menghadkan perlaksanaan hak berhimpun namun had itu, katanya, tidak boleh sama sekali sampai ke tahap menghapuskan sama sekali hak rakyat kepada perhimpunan aman.

Tambahnya, secara jelas akta yang ingin digubal mempunyai motif sebegitu.

“Pengalaman saya mengendalikan banyak kes yang melibatkan tuduhan perhimpunan haram khususnya yang melibatkan ahli dan pemimpin PAS menunjukkan bahawa akta ini digubal sebagai manifestasi kekecewaan pihak kerajaan melalui Peguam Negara yang acap kali tewas di dalam kes-kes yang melibatkan tuduhan perhimpunan haram,” katanya.

Bagi beliau, akta yang ingin diluluskan di Parlimen itu memburukkan lagi wajah buruk kerajaan BN dan Peguam Negara.

“Apa pun percayalah akta ini akan mempercepatkan lagi ajal kerajaan Umno BN insya Allah,” katanya kepada akhbar rasmi PAS itu.

Sementara itu, Keadilandaily melaporkan timbalan presiden PKR, Mohamed Azmin Ali (kanan) menyifatkan Najib sekali lagi gagal menunaikan janjinya untuk melakukan pembaharuan termasuk memberikan kebebasan terhadap hak berhimpun.

“Kita mempunyai PM yang mengamalkan dasar flip flop dan tidak tuntas, tidak menunaikan janji-janjinya dan ini sudah lama dirasai oleh rakyat,” katanya dipetik portal berita itu di Parlimen, semalam.

Lebih teruk

Tegasnya, rang undang-undang itu tidak wajar diperkenalkan kerana perlembagaan sendiri telah memberi jaminan terhadap kebebasan berhimpun.

“Bagi kita perkara ini tidak timbul kerana perlembagaan sudah jelas, (rakyat) diberikan jaminan untuk berhimpun dengan aman. (Kerajaan) tiada keperluan untuk menggubal satu akta lain untuk mengekang kebebasan rakyat,” katanya yang juga ahli parlimen Gombak.

Semalam, setiausaha agung DAP, Lim Guan Eng juga membidas rang undang-undang berkenaan kerana memberi lebih kuasa terhadap polis untuk menahan individu yang terlibat dalam perhimpunan aman.

"Terpulang kepada polis untuk menentukan sama ada sesuatu perhimpunan itu aman atau tidak," katanya lagi yang berpendapat undang-undang tersebut lebih menyekat.

Seksyen 9(5) dalam rang undang-undang berkenaan memberi kuasa kepada polis untuk mengenakan denda ke atas penganjur sebanyak RM10,000 sekiranya tidak mengemukakan notis untuk mengadakan perhimpunan kepada polis.

Manakala Seksyen 21(3) memberi kuasa kepada polis untuk mengenakan denda sehingga RM20,000 berbanding denda sebanyak RM2,000 kepada individu yang ditahan dalam sesuatu perhimpunan.

Tempat larangan yang dinyatakan dalam rang undang-undang berkenaan mengambil takrif kawasan yang diisytiharkan di bawah Akta Kawasan Larangan dan Tempat Larangan 1959.

Walaupun undang-undang yang dicadangkan itu tidak menetapkan tempat yang boleh digunakan untuk perhimpunan, namun beberapa kawasan-kawasan dengan jelas dinamakan sebagai kawasan larangan. Ini termasuk.

• Empangan, takungan dan kawasan tadahan air

• Loji rawatan air

• Stesen penjana elektrik

• Stesen minyak

• Hospital

• Balai bomba

• Lapangan terbang

• Landasan keretapi

• Terminal pengangkutan awam darat

• Pelabuhan, terusan, limbungan, dermaga, jeti, jambatan dan marina

• Tempat ibadat

• Tadika dan sekolah

The 13th GE: Its an open field.

Rahim Tamby Chik( RTC) says there are attempts by the opposition  parties to invite Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah to become PM. This will happen Rahim says, if there is a hung parliament. Such a situation is untenable says Rahim because it will create political instability. So UMNO must work hard to get a 2/3rd majority.

Those were the observations and musings by (RTC) on the political possibilities after the GE13. What is intriguing was his warning that a hung parliament will create instability. I hope we will not be in such a situation. Malaysians would prefer a clear cut victory one way or the other.

I am not going to respond to his nervous prognosis; being more interested on how such a scenario can possibly happen and what are the implications if it does. I don’t think we are going to have a hung parliament. It will be clear cut either way. I am also bemused at his attempt to involve Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in such a scenario. To qualify as a participant in any future negotiations should a hung parliament comes into being, TRH must be head of a political party. Right now, TRH is in UMNO and doesn’t head a party nor is he a leader of any faction in UMNO. Could Rahim’s advice be another attempt to isolate TRH from UMNO?

TRH is far too principled to agree being appointed as leader of government on a personal to holder basis. He will be a figurehead.  Oh, because Tengku has never disowned the ambitions to become PM, comes the answer from UMNO people. So my answer is- why should he not have that ambition? He was cheated to becoming one before. He has all the credentials to become one.

Here is an interesting piece of information. When certain UMNO people wanted to kick out Abdullah Badawi , they approached Tengku Razaleigh for a solution. Their agenda was only one- because of Najib’s hesitation they went to see Razaleigh asking him to stand as UMNO president and Muhyidin as Deputy President. This group was made up of powerful people, united at that time, by their intense disapproval and loathing of Dollah Badawi. My point is this- at that time, they didn’t think it was inappropriate for Tengku Razaleigh to become UMNO president and if he had won, go on to become PM. Tengku’s ambition wasn’t an issue. His age wasn’t an issue. The fundamental objective was to remove Pak Lah.

Why should the opposition parties invite Tengku Razaleigh to become PM, if they could win the elections on their own? PAS has Haji Hadi, DAP has Lim Guan Eng and PKR has Anwar Ibrahim? This assessment presupposes that between the 3, neither one accepts the leader of each party as a future PM.  It also assumes further, that Tengku Razaleigh commands a number of elected MPs to give him standing in future negotiations. Where will he get the MPs? Rahim says 20-30 people are being lined up to stand as MPs who are aligned to Tengku Razaleigh. Where are these people? In UMNO? Within the opposition camp?

So now, let us build up a case, why a hung parliament cannot happen. Just for the moment, let’s not talk about how UMNO and BN can lose. Let’s talk about HOW the opposition- DAP, PAS, PKR can WIN.  Let’s begin by asking, will the PR lose its current 82 seats? Possible, but very unlikely. The seats which they lost when some people jumped ship, will become theirs again. We won’t see the likes of Zahrain and his types in parliament again.

DAP.

DAP now has 28 seats in parliament. DAP has gained substantial ground with Chinese voters. Chinese voters identify more with DAP. By and large the Chinese do not require the intervention and involvement of the government to improve their wellbeing. They got to where they are now, largely by their own efforts and independence. They want to preserve and reinforce that independent streak. How best for them to do that? By staking their future in a party that best represents the independence streak. They don’t want a sissy party perceived as easily compromised, intimidated or even bought over to represent them. DAP is their preferred choice.

I mean that is the reason driving Hishamudin pondering a move from Sembrong to Kota Tinggi. To the Chinese in Sembrong, and this doesn’t please me in saying, Hishamudin is irrelevant to them. He knows if he stays in Sembrong, he can kiss his seat goodbye. They want to kick the ass of the man with the monkey grin.

The Chinese are less dependent on the government and by government, I mean the BN. they need champions for other requirements and that they find in DAP. So the DAP will more or less pummel MCA to the ground. They will take most of the 15 seats the MCA won in the 2008 elections. At the very best, MCA can retain 3 seats. The worst case scenario is, MCA wins nothing. The DAP will increase its seats by another 12 in Semenanjung. It gobbles up most of the seats now held by MCA.

Why will DAP win over the MCA? Because the Chinese believe MCA has sold them out. Not necessarily by kowtowing to big brother UMNO over many issues, but by retreating from representing the indomitable spirit of the Chinese. MCA has lost its mandate. That’s how DAP is winning the Chinese over- where MCA failed.

On a more simplistic reasoning, the Chinese who have traditionally supported MCA are asking- how come almost all our Chinese MCA leaders are being persecuted and prosecuted by the Courts once they leave office? How come UMNO leaders who do or are alleged to be doing the same things are not? They know Malay leaders stole and swindled more.

What about the DAP in Sarawak?  Generally speaking, the urban seats will be taken up by the DAP. That will be another 8 or 9 seats for the DAP. The seats held currently by SUPP will end up in DAP’s hands. The DAP will get around 20 seats more than they got in 2008.  This time around, DAP will be in parliament with probably 46-48 seats.

The newer and younger DAP leadership is taking on Malaysian politics with more finesse and it doesn’t now intimidate modern thinking Malays as the older generation of DAP leaders once did. And it has shed its umbilical connections with the PAP. So now, if there are attempts for example to link DAP as a stool or Trojan horse to Singapore’s PAP, such attempts will be laughed at.

PAS.

It’s difficult to dislodge PAS from where they are now. Has any elected PAS rep jumped ship? This means, PAS has been careful to select leaders on the basis of each having convictions and intense belief. It will likely do the same thing for the 13GE. 

How can PAS win? It’s difficult for its opponent to dislodge PAS in its traditional role as champions for Islam and serving as the emotional anchor for conservative Malays. It will retain the many seats it now has in Kelantan. It will gain more seats in Terengganu which is expected to go back to PAS this time around. Some of the seats in Kedah for example, currently held by MCA  and UMNO will be won by PAS. The seat now occupied by MCA’s Chor will be lost to PAS. PAS can win because it’s organized and is motivated by convictions. This is what sets it apart from UMNO.

They are not out for personal glory and gratification. They have got a number of secular liberals in the party who can attract younger Malay voters. They will attract the serious thinkers among the younger Malay crowd who are not included in the tweeting about football or about Elton John variety.

PAS currently has 23 seats in parliament. It will secure a large number in Terengganu, maybe 1 seat in Pahang, 3 in Kedah. My guess is they will increase their seats by another 7-8. PAS will enter the next parliament with around 30-31 seats.

PKR.

What about PKR? I thought PKR is the weak link in PR. Let’s not forget it won 31 seats in the 2008 elections.  Those who jumped ship are either ex UMNO members (that tells us much about the quality and resolve of UMNO members) and those who were selected on the basis of urgency and expedience. The ‘fluid’ candidates will be removed this time around, and it is likely that PKR will select candidates with firmer constitution. PKR will secure a number of seats in Sarawak taking away seats from SPDP and PRS. Baru Bian will spearhead PKR’s drive in Sarawak. I am thinking that PKR will still enter parliament with around 33-35 seats.

Let’s take the worst case scenario. DAP= 46, PAS= 30, PKR= 33. The opposition has 109 seats. They are short of 3 seats to secure the majority.

We haven’t included Sabah in our discussion. With the disenchantment towards Musa Aman, it’s unlikely that UMNO Sabah can retain all its seats it currently has. Unless of course they pay the voters in their constituencies. The non UMNO parties in Sabah are increasingly less enamored with Musa Aman and they can’t defend their positions by sticking around with Mr. Vacuum Cleaner. The opposition will probably gain around 6 seats outright.

To me Sabah is the powder keg. It’s likely to blow in the face of BN. the non-Malay indigenous people of Sabah are likely to pressure their parties to abandon BN. they have had numerous UMNO leaders leading them in the past, all they got was continued marginalization. They don’t see development in their areas. They don’t see electricity and roads and clean water after years of BN rule.  It’s therefore possible for us to see 8-10 seats migrating to PR’s camp.  We can say that around 14-16 seats from Sabah alone are PR inclined.

My own personal observations about the coming 13th GE is as follows- PR 118-125 seats. UMNO/BN= 98-104 seats.

There won’t be a hung parliament.

written by : Sakmongkol AK47