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If a 'hung' Parliament does befall Malaysia, Pakatan Rakyat's Anwar Ibrahim will be kept waiting at the royal gates.
Last week I wrote that the 13th general election will deliver a clear winner simply because that’s what Malaysians “would prefer”. But let’s now assume the next GE delivers a hung Parliament.
How can this happen? More importantly, why have the opposition extended an invitation to Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (Ku Li)? And in what capacity do they see him?
I believe the answer lies in the hard realities of Malaysian politics.
Let’s look at a likely scenario if there’s a hung Parliament. A “hung” Parliament can take place when not one single party has the majority in Parliament.
Any one party can have the largest number of seats which, if it is less than 112, can never go on to form the government.
Let’s say Umno garners the most seats – at least 70 from its current 79. It then becomes the party with the largest number of seats.
Sarawak not enough
What happens when the results of the elections come out?
The first person or persons to see the Yang di-Pertuan Agong will be the chief secretary and possibly the Attorney-General (AG) because of the constitutional implications.
He will look around and inform the King that the party which has the largest number of seats is Umno.
The King then summons Umno to inquire whether it can form the government.
Umno will look around and it will see its traditional partners decimated.
It will then cast its eye on Sarawak and sees possibly Taib Mahmud’s Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) which probably retains 12 seats.
But what if 16 seats are won by the opposition there? PBB has only three more seats friendly to offer. Then Taib will say, “boss I can only offer 15 seats”.
The other 16 have gone to DAP and PKR and to those who don’t want BN anymore. I can’t “gawai” and “ngajat” anymore. It makes me dizzy. Umno plus the Sarawak party now has 85 seats.
No options
If we are kind enough, let’s say MCA managed to wriggle through with three seats – Umno-Barisan Nasional now has 88. MIC delivers one seat. Now it has 89.
Out of the 25 seats in Sabah, the state Barisan Nasional coalition (after excluding Umno) takes another eight.
Now Umno and BN have 97 seats. Still not enough ma…
Mana mahu cari lagi?
The Umno president then goes on air and proclaims that we can’t form a federal government if we can’t show we are multiracial.
Since my macai party MCA has not enough seats, in order to show we are inclusive, 1Malaysia, multiracial and all that, I now call upon my old friend uncle Kit (Lim Kit Siang) to join us.
DAP is invited to join the new coalition party. Uncle Kit will say: “Mo-wa thank you.”
The story we wish we can expand is thus cut short. Uncle Kit and Uncle Karpal (Singh) will say: “Over my dead body. Nahi!”
So Umno and BN have run out of options and so they will declare that BN can’t form a government.
Getting an audience
Meanwhile, Anwar Ibrahim is jumping up and down at the palace gates screaming: “I have the number! I have the number! I have a signed declaration from the MPs they want us (Pakatan Rakyat) to form a government!”
But the paper with the signed names is worthless. You have to test it actually in Parliament.
Parliament hasn’t yet sat so there’s no way of testing Anwar’s claim. So Anwar couldn’t pass the palace gates.
He requests for an audience to meet the King along with all the signatories of his paper to show the King he has the number.
They all come in AirAsia buses provided by chief executive officer Tony Fernandes who’s eager to high-five with the new rulers.
Anwar can only succeed if he gets an audience with the King. This has always been the way, the precedence.
Abdul Zamry Kadir brings all the assemblymen who supported him before (Perak Sultan) Raja Azlan Shah and submitted: “Sire, here is the proof that I have more support than Nizar (Jamaluddin – elected Menteri Besar of Perak).”
Doing a Zambry
Until today, we are still debating whether the meeting with Raja Azlan in his palace constituted a Dewan siting.
But now, BN people cannot say it doesn’t because that’s how Zambry got to become MB.
Anwar is just doing a Zambry when he asks to meet up with the King.
Anwar, who over the years has created animosity with the AG, the police, and the chief secretary is still not given permission to pass the gates to the new palace.
That’s when Tengku Razaleigh comes into the picture. But that my friends will be in another instalment.
